Wednesday, May 28, 2025

2025 Pirates Win Predictions - 1/3 Mark

Since the Pirates have played just over 1/3 of their games this season, it's a good time to check in with our family's win predictions.  Today, they stand at 21-36, which is good for the fourth-worst record in the majors.  And that's after winning 6 out of their last 10 games under new manager Donnie Kelly.

I tried to be as pessimistic as possible before the season without being a downer.  That put my projected win total below the rest of the family.  And yet, that turns out to be way too optimistic for this offensively-challenged squad.

To get to 71 wins, they'd have to go 50-55 the rest of the way after going 21-36 to date.  They have the pitching to do that.  The questions are: 

  • Will the injury bug stop biting them? 
  • Will they field the most productive hitters in the organization?
  • Can those hitters hit way better in the next four months than they have in the first two?





Thursday, May 15, 2025

Dispatch from the Empty Nest

Since I wondered what the empty nest was like before we arrived at one, I thought I would share some field observations.  On the first Sunday in January of this year, we officially transitioned from our "emptying nest" phase to the real deal.  

Our Timeline

  • May 2024: Charlie graduated from Oberlin College with a creative writing degree

  • June 2024: Teddy graduated from Allderdice High School
  • Summer to September: all 4 at home; Charlie umpiring little league and ushering at PNC Park for the Pirates; Teddy working at a growing 3-d printing company close to our neighborhood
  • End of September: Teddy enrolled at New England Institute of Technology in East Greenwich, RI for auto repair
  • November: a brief job search landed Charlie in an administrative role at Carnegie Mellon's Entertainment Technology Center
  • Also November: we took an "emptying nest" trip to the Bahamas, just the two of us.
  • Christmas holidays: Teddy home for three weeks, working and hanging out with his high school sweetheart, whom he's still dating.  All four of us in the house.
  • Sunday January 5, 2025: Charlie moves into a 1BR apartment a half-mile east of us the same day that Teddy returns to school (530 miles away) for the winter term.

All at once, after having everyone under one roof again for the holidays, my competent wife and I suddenly found ourselves the only permanent residents of our home.  The transition felt slow, slow, slow, FAST! One or more resident may, of course, return at some point.  For now, though, we've spent these months adjusting to the new normal.

Gratitude List

Two conditions make our transition to the empty nest easier than some.  I frame them in gratitude so that they (hopefully) don't come across as braggadocio.  Neither of these conditions is guaranteed as the nest empties.  First, we still like and love each other.  Like in the potentially-gross-out favorite person way.  That's huge.  Second, our sons are both happy and fulfilled in their lives.  We would support them if they weren't, but it's a great pleasure that they're both launching well.  They even protest a little when we pay for things before accepting our generosity and thanking us.  It's the sweetest.

Also, everyone's in relatively good health (especially since I'm off the crutches I relied on through two commencements last May and June).  We don't take this for granted either.

Expectation

I'm not sure what exactly I expected from this phase of life.  Maybe that the house would be too quiet or that the whole enterprise might feel bleak compared to family life.  I guess I felt vaguely anxious about it, not being the biggest fan of change in general. 

Reality

In reality, I notice the mundane more than the profound.  We get frequent touchpoints with Charlie since he lives close.  He still sits with us at church and comes over for Sunday supper.  One day, he helped me with a two-person yard project when Paige was busy.

Saving up Conversation Topics

With progeny of any age in the house, the family schedule put pressure on when we could actually discuss decisions or update each other on the people or events of the day.  Now, we find ourselves storing up things to talk about until it's a good time to talk.  We might cook together with the radio or a podcast on and then run down our list when we're seated, quietly, facing each other at the dinner table.  I literally keep a list on my phone and fight the urge to "download" from it at suboptimal times.

Cooking Less

We have practiced this adjustment before thanks to summer camp experiences (camper and staff) and then to Charlie going away to college.  Getting down to two mouths to feed, we can actually plan leftovers as a dinner again.  We can also cook certain meals without doubling the recipe.  Young men can, of course, eat on a plague-of-locusts level.  

When we make cookie dough, we bake maybe a half-dozen cookies, form the rest and freeze them.  Then we bake them off a half-dozen at a time in the toaster oven.  It's a kind of bliss.  Also, no one complains when dinner is vegetarian.

Purge Impulse

In the absence of dependents to see to, I find myself wanting to take care of the household.  In particular, I want any item we don't need anymore gone ASAP.  On Charlie's Sunday visits, we often have a little pile of things for him to take if he likes.  Since the pandemic, we've given a lot away using our neighborhood Buy Nothing group.  That trend continues.

Don't worry.  I'm not piling up the guys' personal effects from their bedrooms and carting them to Goodwill.  Just, you know, Marie Kondo-ing my own stuff.

Not Bored

I might have guessed that without school events or shopping emergencies or impromptu kitchen dance parties, "just" the two of us might get bored.  I was wrong.  For one thing, we have more freedom to say yes to things we like to do.  My competent wife sang in the choir for Holy Week, which involved several Lenten Thursday evenings at rehearsal.  I've attended many more Story Club story slams than I used to.  We can also say yes to spontaneous social opportunities more easily.

True confession: we went back to our kids' high school for the spring musical even though our guys don't qualify for the cast or crew anymore.  Who doesn't enjoy a high school musical. Don't answer that.

Sometimes, we take a walk before making dinner.  Pretty wild.

The fact that it's easier to take on projects around the house means I'm taking on more projects around the house.  Honestly, at stretches, I've wished for some of the quiet boredom I'd speculated about.

1:1 Ratio

One way in which we're now definitely spoiled: We never wait to use a bathroom.  There's one for each of us.  When we've had houseguests recently, I've found myself feeling suddenly curmudgeonly about having to share.

Conclusion

So that's it.  Nothing earth-shattering.  Mostly extremely present.  

I tried hard to welcome and see the good in each stage of our children's development into young men.  I'm trying to approach this new phase the same way.

Wednesday, March 26, 2025

2025 Pirates Win Predictions

Your correspondent failed to update after the family's initial predictions last year.  The Pirates won 76 games for the second year in a row.  That yielded a first for us: a three-way tie on prediction accuracy.  My pessimistic call of 73 wins and Paige's and Teddy's more optimistic 79 win prognostication were just 3 wins off the actual result.  Charlie's 90 fell charmingly over.

This year, two family members predict consistency at 76 wins again.  Charlie again believes this is the Pirates year.  I have seen nothing from the off season or spring training to get me excited.  (Except Jack Suwinski's return to hitting form.  We shall see how that lasts into the regular season.) 

If Tommy Pham is still with the team on Father's Day, I will revise my prediction down to 48 wins.