2021 Pirates Win Predictions

 After ten years of Forster family Pirates win prognosticating, the data shows quite the barbell distribution (which was an issue at the men's and women's NCAA tournaments this year).  The local nine rewards extreme optimism and extreme pessimism:

There's more to the story, however.  The most pessimistic prediction has been the most accurate four of the last five years.  Optimism, meanwhile, has paid off only sporadically and mostly several years ago*:

 You may note that I have only won by being most pessimistic, and Charlie has only won by being most optimistic.  Paige won two years on the pessimist side of the ledger, and Teddy encapsulates the dumbbell distribution perfectly.  When the Pirates are closest to the expectations of the sunny view, they average 2.5 wins over the high prediction.  When the gray cloud predictor is right, they average 5.2 wins worse than that year's Eeyore thought.

If last year was a rebuilding year, 2021 promises to be a complete reinvention year with lots of young, unproven "talent." I am, again, the most pessimistic.  Even I, however, see an adjusted 10-game improvement over last year's league-worst record. Who will be right?

*2020 predicted and actual wins adjusted for a 162 game season (they only played 60) for easy year-to-year comparison