2025 Pirates Win Predictions - 1/3 Mark

Since the Pirates have played just over 1/3 of their games this season, it's a good time to check in with our family's win predictions.  Today, they stand at 21-36, which is good for the fourth-worst record in the majors.  And that's after winning 6 out of their last 10 games under new manager Donnie Kelly.

I tried to be as pessimistic as possible before the season without being a downer.  That put my projected win total below the rest of the family.  And yet, that turns out to be way too optimistic for this offensively-challenged squad.

To get to 71 wins, they'd have to go 50-55 the rest of the way after going 21-36 to date.  They have the pitching to do that.  The questions are: 

• Will the injury bug stop biting them? 
• Will they field the most productive hitters in the organization?
• Can those hitters hit way better in the next four months than they have in the first two?

2025 Pirates Win Predictions

Your correspondent failed to update after the family's initial predictions last year.  The Pirates won 76 games for the second year in a row.  That yielded a first for us: a three-way tie on prediction accuracy.  My pessimistic call of 73 wins and Paige's and Teddy's more optimistic 79 win prognostication were just 3 wins off the actual result.  Charlie's 90 fell charmingly over.

This year, two family members predict consistency at 76 wins again.  Charlie again believes this is the Pirates year.  I have seen nothing from the off season or spring training to get me excited.  (Except Jack Suwinski's return to hitting form.  We shall see how that lasts into the regular season.) 

If Tommy Pham is still with the team on Father's Day, I will revise my prediction down to 48 wins.

2024 Pirates Win Predictions

Last season, the Pirates pulled off an unusual feat: they rewarded optimism in the Forster family win predictions.

Having failed to post the result at season's end and give Charlie his props, I shall do so now.  The Pirates won 76 games in 2023, and Charlie, the family baseball optimist, predicted 78.  That prediction was closer than anyone else in the family (ranging from predictions of 57-70 wins).

This year's optimism order holds steady, and we have another rarity: two family members predicting the same number of wins.  We shall see what a team with improving young players but really no starting pitching staff can do.

Pirates Win Predictions: Labor Day Weekend

As we round the final curve of this baseball season, the Pirates have assembled one of their most interesting irrelevant years.  They followed up a torrid April with a horrid May.  Similar ups and downs followed.  July turned out largely forgettable.  Since they've started playing mostly prospects in August, fortunes have ticked back up again (to near .500).  Entering September, we never know what we'll see from this team night to night.  Sublime highs follow dispiriting lows.

Their projected number of wins has ticked up just one since the all star break. In late August, they eliminated me from Forster Family Prediction contention by winning their 58th game.   Three prognosticators remain, but one will fall soon.

Their current 63-73 record/0.463 winning percentage maps to 75 wins, which would make optimistic Charlie the most accurate.  Things would have to go deeply south for them to only win 5 more games out of 26 remaining, so Teddy's chance of perfection won't last too long.  If they perform as badly as their worst month (May, 0.308), they'll win 71 total, and Paige will be right.  If they finish how they started at April's .679 winning percentage, they could finish a non-losing 81-81.

All-Star Break Update: 2023 Pirates Win Predictions

 With the season (slightly more than) half over, it's a good time to check in about which Forster is prognosticating the Pirates win total most accurately.

Charlie and Paige have an equal chance of being closest.  During the team's wild upswings, you'll think Charlie has nailed it.  During their losing streaks, you'll actually think I'm right.  It's a young, exciting, unpredictable team with some olds who can still play.

2023 Pirates Win Predictions

 More like hopening day, am I right?

Paige predicted the Pirates success exactly last season at 62 wins.  The rest of the family flanked her.  While Andrew McCutchen's return has increased the middle entries, the mostly unproven pitching yields both a lower ceiling and a lower floor on Forster expectations.  There will be days of magic and days of disappointment, but at least those results should come faster due to rule changes.  Viva la pitch clock!

Update: 2022 Pirates Win Predictions

 Every few years, someone in our family predicts the number of Pirates wins exactly.  It's super scientific and impressive - basically a 538 Obama election level accomplishment.  When I say "someone" in our family does this, it's only one person: Paige in 2012 and 2022

Predicting the exact outcome may be even more impressive considering this team that set a record for number of different players used in a season.  A young, unpredictable team in flux offered its share of both embarrassing lows, sublime highs, and teases of what will hopefully manifest as better days to come.

2022 Pirates Win Predictions - mid-year check-in

 Baseball season is long.  162 games long.  Having played 81 of those games, the Pirates are 33-48.  Their .407 winning percentage projects them to win 66 games.  That would both improve on last year and give Teddy the title of most accurate Forster predictor.  

This young team has been maybe more exciting than I had hoped and wildly unpredictable.  A nice goal would be for the team to go three weeks without the second baseman pitching the ninth inning.  Too much Diego Castillo and Josh Vanmeter on the mound in blowouts so far.  While a leap to match Charlie's optimism seems highly unlikely, his more pessimistic family members all remain solidly in the running.

2022 Pirates Win Predictions

 Well, this is a shame.  I failed last year to return to the blog to gloat that I had nailed the Pirates win prediction exactly at 61 games.  At least somebody in Pittsburgh won.

 Close readers will know that last year's result continued a pattern where the most pessimistic Forster most often ends up closest to the real Pirates win total.

 This year, the optimism spectrum ranges widely as the Pirates prepare to field a young team with lots of question marks.

 

2021 Pirates Win Predictions

 After ten years of Forster family Pirates win prognosticating, the data shows quite the barbell distribution (which was an issue at the men's and women's NCAA tournaments this year).  The local nine rewards extreme optimism and extreme pessimism:

There's more to the story, however.  The most pessimistic prediction has been the most accurate four of the last five years.  Optimism, meanwhile, has paid off only sporadically and mostly several years ago*:

 You may note that I have only won by being most pessimistic, and Charlie has only won by being most optimistic.  Paige won two years on the pessimist side of the ledger, and Teddy encapsulates the dumbbell distribution perfectly.  When the Pirates are closest to the expectations of the sunny view, they average 2.5 wins over the high prediction.  When the gray cloud predictor is right, they average 5.2 wins worse than that year's Eeyore thought.

If last year was a rebuilding year, 2021 promises to be a complete reinvention year with lots of young, unproven "talent." I am, again, the most pessimistic.  Even I, however, see an adjusted 10-game improvement over last year's league-worst record. Who will be right?

*2020 predicted and actual wins adjusted for a 162 game season (they only played 60) for easy year-to-year comparison

Update: 2020 Pirates Win Predictions

For the fifth straight year, the hometown nine has rewarded pessimism in our family's win predictions.  It's in the water (three whole rivers' worth).  Disappointing even the bleakest of expectations defines the terroir of Pittsburgh Pirates baseball.  When all else is topsy turvy, pell mell, helter skelter, the Pirates provide the kind of performance you know you can rely on.  They will do worse than you can even imagine.

The competent dad wins two years in a row.  I told you my relentless pessimism would pay off someday, kiddos!

 No doubt, we'll get 'em next year.   

2020 Pirates Win Predictions

Well, we can't let the fact that humanity may not survive interfere with tradition, now can we?  The Pirates shall play only 60 games this year in a season that makes one wonder about the propriety of caring about baseball.  We decided to go ahead and predict how many games the hometown team will win this year.  It's a rebuilding year for the franchise, and the way the union and league negotiated with a global pandemic as the backdrop, even if planet earth lasts another year, Major League Baseball may not.  Heck of a swan song for America's pasttime.

For reference, the 2019 bar on the chart below shows how many games the Pirates will win this year if they repeat last season's forgettable win percentage of .426 (and that's even rounded up using traditional rounding).

 

Update: 2019 Pirates Win Predictions

The Pirates season has limped to a close.  Charlie, Teddy and I got to see the final indignity in person from great seats.  I don't know what saw the boys through a 3-1, 93rd loss of the season, but for me, it was the sweet satisfaction of having prognosticated the most accurately just how things would wind up this year.  Pessimism, for the win.

Pour one out for Clint "Walking Serenity Prayer" Hurdle.  I, for one, will miss him.  On the other hand, Lonnie Chisenhall, ye bum, we hardly knew ye. 

 

2019 Pirates Win Predictions

The grass is green.  The Lonnie Chisenhall Era begins in earnest on opening day in Cincinnati.  It's time for the Forsters to predict the Pirates' fortunes for the coming year.  Teddy, being the most optimistic last year, predicted 81 wins, and the boys of three rivers summer beat that out by winning 82 games.  Due to a meaningless rainout of a late season clash with the Marlins that was not rescheduled, they only lost 79 games for a memorable .509 winning percentage.

This year, Charlie believes the most, and I am back to being the pessimist of the bunch.

In Kyle Crick we trust!

 

2018 Pirates Win Predictions

It's opening day, and the Pirates are in first place.  There's still a little snow on the ground. All is possibility.  The McCutchen era is over.  No one in our family believes the Pirates can have a winning season, but everyone believes they will improve on last year's win total. Can I repeat as the most accurate predictor (a title I attained on my seventh try)?  Only time will tell.  Baseball!  You bet!

 

Pirates Preditions: 2017 Wrap-up

I've rarely been so sad to a) be right and b) win a contest.  This is the first year of seven Forster family Pirates win predictions that I've been the most accurate.  I was also the most pessimistic, predicting a finish equal to 2016's record.  Unfortunately, even that gloomy forecast was a shade too sunny.  No Starling Marte for 80 games hurt the Bucs this year.  Starling Marte on the base paths when he came back also hurt them.

Wait till next year!

2017 Pirates Win Predictions

It's a Competent Parent rite of spring.  We predict the win total our boys of summer will achieve.  For those of you scoring home, I have never been the closest.  Since 2011, Charlie's been right thrice, Paige twice, and Teddy once.  One of Paige's wins came last year, when her guess of 86 wins was the lowest, and they managed only 78 wins.  

Those who root for the Pirates should hope that Charlie's right again this year and that my streak stays intact.

Pirates Predictions: 2016 Wrap-up

Unlike last season, when the most optimistic among us (Charlie) was closest to the final win prediction, this year, pessimism wins. Paige predicted a solid winning season, but she predicted the least solid winning season among us.  Everyone except Dad has won this contest at least once in our six years of officially competing.  Next year is my year.  I feel it.  Also, the Pirates year.  If, you know, the Cubs decide to stop playing baseball.

Pirates Predictions - Mid-2016 Update

Well, none of us thought that the Pirates would exceed - or even meet last year's win total.  It turns out that after a very inconsistent first half, they didn't even meet the lowest prediction a member of our family made.  Here's to a better second half with young gun starters, the real Andrew McCutchen and continued magic from All-Starling Marte.

2016 Pirates Predictions

In 2015, Charlie lead the way in both optimism and accuracy.  This year, he shows just as much optimism by predicting only a 2-win dropoff from last year.  I have never had the closest prediction.  Paige and Teddy have each won once, and Charlie three times.  You are now equipped to wager.